(no subject)

[winterbadger]

E-V tally shows FL going Republican.

The Obama campaign is in serious trouble. He's gone (on this site, which I find to be a pretty good barometer) from a commanding lead to a narrow loss in just a week or so.

He needs to get back on top of the news cycle, he needs to regain momentum, and (IMO) he needs to do a better job of debunking Gov Palin.

Most of all, Obama had better wipe the floor with McCain in the debates.

Or we are going to have another four years of mismanagement and conservatism. :-(

Comments

[wcg.livejournal.com]

It's going to slosh back and forth for the next two months. The trick will be in getting our candidate onto the rising tide as we come up on November 4th.

[snolan.livejournal.com]

Interesting way of looking at it... hmmm.
I hate that there will be any back and forth at all...

[snolan.livejournal.com]

Nothing to get alarmed about... McCain's campaign jumped the shark with the Palin choice; they've recently gone extremely negative in their paid adverts on television which is costing the campaign a bundle. While we all expected the Republican lies, though some hoped McCain himself would help temper them a little, we tended to expect better lies than the ones we've been seeing for a week now.

These lies are silly, easily to disprove; and very embarrassing for the McCain campaign and the Republican party in general. Sure the clueless and apathetic are polling along with the ads du jour, and the politically aware bases are polling as they always do... but there will be a huge backlash amongst those fooled this week by the lies... the bases will not shift much at all, and there is still the unpolled masses of newly registered voters.

Despite what 538 and E-V have up now, I am still guessing at a 320+ EV win for Obama, and +6-11 US Senate Seats, and +15-40 US House seats. Those are bold predictions I know, but keep in mind that Americans are going to be pissed as they wake up to the facts... If these ads had appeared the week before the election, we'd be in trouble. McCain is shooting prematurely.

[winterbadger]

Putting aside for the moment my particular dislike of the phrase "jumped the shark", I would argue that, despite what most of the liberal blogosphere has been crowing, Palin was not chosen in haste or blindly, but for a very calculated effect, and that effect is working.

Yes, the GOP lies like a cheap toupee, but it seems to have devised a strange combination of teflon and velcro. The lies stick, and the attempts to debunk them don't seem to be able to get any traction.

I'd pursue this further, but it's finally time for me to go home, so I will just wish you (and other readers) a good weekend!

[kathygnome.livejournal.com]

Ferraro really turned the election around as well... For a very short time. I think the key will be the debates, then we'll find out if the US deserves to exist or deserves to end up in history's rubbish bin.