wisdom from Phillip Pullman
Oct. 13th, 2005 01:46 pm![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
winterbadgerhttp://www.philip-pullman.com/pages/content/index.asp?PageID=119
When will we wake up to the fact that we need to do something NOW about the mess we're making? It *will* get worse; the question is: how much?
...What`s more, if we stopped burning fossil fuels right now, completely, everywhere, the earth could continue to warm up for a long time to come, because there`s a momentum involved. Eventually it would slow down and stop, but it`s going to get hotter whatever we do. The Greenland ice cap, for example, is going to melt. It`s done for. Maybe it will take two hundred years, maybe five, maybe a thousand; but eventually it will all go, and as a result, the level of the oceans and seas will rise by about seven metres. Think of what that will mean for people who live around the coasts of the world; think what it will mean for cities like New Orleans.
There isn`t any doubt about this. You`ll hear people like President Bush and his friends say that the facts are not clear at all, and there`s still a lot of debate about global warming, and we shouldn`t act before the science is proved beyond doubt. But they`re lying. There is no doubt about the science. They`re anxious that we shouldn`t know the truth and act on it, because they`re in the oil business, or they`re supported by the coal industry, and the last thing they want is for us to stop using their products and filling their pockets with dollars.
When will we wake up to the fact that we need to do something NOW about the mess we're making? It *will* get worse; the question is: how much?
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no subject
Date: 2005-10-13 08:16 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-10-13 08:17 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-10-14 03:31 am (UTC)"Scientists know for certain that human activities are changing the composition of Earth's atmosphere. Increasing levels of greenhouse gases, like carbon dioxide (CO2), in the atmosphere since pre-industrial times have been well documented. There is no doubt this atmospheric buildup of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases is largely the result of human activities.
It's well accepted by scientists that greenhouse gases trap heat in the Earth's atmosphere and tend to warm the planet. By increasing the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, human activities are strengthening Earth's natural greenhouse effect. The key greenhouse gases emitted by human activities remain in the atmosphere for periods ranging from decades to centuries.
A warming trend of about 1°F has been recorded since the late 19th century. Warming has occurred in both the northern and southern hemispheres, and over the oceans. Confirmation of 20th-century global warming is further substantiated by melting glaciers, decreased snow cover in the northern hemisphere and even warming below ground."
Increasing rise in sea levels is a fact; decreases in the ozone layer and their effect on human populations and natural environments is a fact; lessened snow cover and serious changes in ecosystems are facts. Trying to pretend they're not there or that human activity isn't a major contributor to them is simply foolish and dishonest. We can debate what we do about them, but to pretend they aren't there, or that they're just natural processes that will even out in time is like... well, failing to fund repairs to the New Orleans levee system because there probably won't be a really big hurricane...
and
"Rising global temperatures are expected to raise sea level, and change precipitation and other local climate conditions. Changing regional climate could alter forests, crop yields, and water supplies. It could also affect human health, animals, and many types of ecosystems. Deserts may expand into existing rangelands, and features of some of our National Parks may be permanently altered."
Likewise, after some face-saving prevarication, NOAA's National Climactic Data Center says that " The greenhouse effect is unquestionably real", that " Human activity has been increasing the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere... There is no scientific debate on this point", and that "The concentration of CO2 in our atmosphere today, has not been exceeded in the last 420,000 years, and likely not in the last 20 million years. According to the IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES), by the end of the 21st century, we could expect to see carbon dioxide concentrations of anywhere from 490 to 1260 ppm (75-350% above the pre-industrial concentration)."
They also observe "that Arctic sea ice has decreased between 1973 and 1996 at a rate of -2.8 +/- 0.3%/decade", that "Global mean sea level has been rising at an average rate of 1 to 2 mm/year over the past 100 years, which is significantly larger than the rate averaged over the last several thousand years", and that "Based on the incomplete evidence available, the projected change [in temperatures] of 3 to 7°F (1.5 - 4°C) over the next century would be unprecedented in comparison with the best available records from the last several thousand years." [In fact, the IPCC figures are slightly higher, 1.4 to 5.8 *C.]
When asked if natural cycles could be accounting for this rapid change, the NCDC says that "While [natural sun-related] cycles have tremendous value as a theory to explain ice-ages and long-term changes in the climate, they are unlikely to have very much impact on the decade-century timescale. Over several centuries, it may be possible to observe the effect of these orbital parameters, however for the prediction of climate change in the 21st century, these changes will be far less important than radiative forcing from greenhouse gases."
And this from the people who supposedly doubt the effect of global warming!
no subject
Date: 2005-10-14 05:43 am (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-10-14 12:05 pm (UTC)No more anonymous comments. And *poof* all his asshattery gone. Yes, I'm totally unable to accept anyone who disagrees with me. *rolleyes* He should see the exchange I had in my MIddle East studies class recently...