very, very cynical pool: who's in?
Sep. 29th, 2006 10:30 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
winterbadgerI was chatting with a friend at work about the coming election and the prevalence of, erm, sudden announcements from the Bush administration when a political distraction or advantage was needed. .
We've decided to start a pool: "On what day before Election Day (November 7th, 2006) will the next great victory in the War on Terror be announced?" Of course, going by past track records, the event may not have taken place on or near that date; it's just the date of the announcement. "Victories" can include (but are not limited to) the capture or "neutralisation" of a senior AQ or Iraqi insurgent leader, the "foiling" of a "diabiolical terror plot", or (more weak) an unexplained or vaguely explained increase in the colour-coded alert level.
(Simple veiled implications that non-Republican candidates are supporters of terrorism or accustations that Democrats and Independents "are trying to undermine the safery of the United States" or "want to see our troops dead" are not enough to qualify; those are far too common these days to count as an exceptional event.)
$10 gets you a day. The winner (judged by consensus of participants if there are multiple qualifying events) gets half the pot; the remainder goes to drinks for an Election Night returns-viewing party. If *no* qualifying event takes place, the winner's share goes to charity, and we are all ashamed of ourselves for being so cynical. :-)
Since I'm proposing, bags I October 23rd (I figure two weeks is just the right amount of time to capitalise on the bump, but *exactly* two weeks would be too obvious).
Who's in?
We've decided to start a pool: "On what day before Election Day (November 7th, 2006) will the next great victory in the War on Terror be announced?" Of course, going by past track records, the event may not have taken place on or near that date; it's just the date of the announcement. "Victories" can include (but are not limited to) the capture or "neutralisation" of a senior AQ or Iraqi insurgent leader, the "foiling" of a "diabiolical terror plot", or (more weak) an unexplained or vaguely explained increase in the colour-coded alert level.
(Simple veiled implications that non-Republican candidates are supporters of terrorism or accustations that Democrats and Independents "are trying to undermine the safery of the United States" or "want to see our troops dead" are not enough to qualify; those are far too common these days to count as an exceptional event.)
$10 gets you a day. The winner (judged by consensus of participants if there are multiple qualifying events) gets half the pot; the remainder goes to drinks for an Election Night returns-viewing party. If *no* qualifying event takes place, the winner's share goes to charity, and we are all ashamed of ourselves for being so cynical. :-)
Since I'm proposing, bags I October 23rd (I figure two weeks is just the right amount of time to capitalise on the bump, but *exactly* two weeks would be too obvious).
Who's in?
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no subject
Date: 2006-09-29 04:42 pm (UTC)Much as I should be calling my congress-entities and screaming at them, I have to admit that I'm trying to avoid news this week -- I'm afraid that too close attention (I get the gist of things from skimming) might throw me back into the Pool of Unrelenting Despair. I have to get some work done this week!
Sigh.
Good on Scotland, though. Go you!
no subject
Date: 2006-09-29 04:50 pm (UTC)Too much of my job involves news; I can't really avoid it. Plus, I've been an international affairs news junkie for too long. Even if I retire to a small cottage ont eh Sound of Sleat, I'll need an Internet connection and a satellite dish so as to keep upwith what's going on in Iran and China and (even) the US.
no subject
Date: 2006-09-29 06:51 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2006-09-29 07:43 pm (UTC)I think Zawahiri is the more likely catch. I don't think we're going to see UBL until either Musharraf feels a *lot* more comfortably in control of Pakistan than he does now or the White House loses patience and sends in a covert team that is very, very lucky. And I think they know that UBL "out there" is worth more to them than the trouble that getting him (serious unrest in Pakistan, possibly leading to Musharraf's overthrow and the religious extremists gainign control of nukes) might conceivably land us in.
I actually think an attack (threat of/rumours of/alleged defeat of) is a more likely October Surprise than a prisoner (that could be a separate sub-wager :-). The whole Bush/Cheney/Rove M.O. seems to be more to instill fear and say "We're the only ones who can deal with it!" than to trumpet success. But maybe that's because they've had so little success to trumpet.
Or, to quote from my favourite (political) movie...
Hi.
Date: 2006-09-30 01:54 am (UTC)So.. Do I get points for knowing what movie that's from???
Bob Rumsfeld instead of GWB
Re: Hi.
Date: 2006-09-30 04:43 am (UTC)Yes, you certainly get points for recognising the passage!
It drives me crazy that conservatives spent years telling all the rest of us that Jed Bartlett(/Andrew Shephard) was just a liberal's dream of what a president would be like. OK, so what has George Bush been? The evil, STUPID, feckless version of Bob Rumson? Bob Rumson was modeled (IMO) on Bob Dole (nad made much nastier), but I think I would rather have had Bob Rumson running the country for the last six years (let alone Bob Dole...) He would have done just as many evil things, but not as many STUPID ones...